November 2020

November is here and it’s shaping up as a big month at home and abroad. As the Melbourne Cup field burst out of the gates on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank is widely tipped to announce a cut in the cash rate. And then there’s the US election on Wednesday (Australian time), which is still an open race.

The Federal Budget on October 6 was the start of a pivotal month on the economic scene. Budget estimates released later in the month revealed a deficit of $132.5 billion in the year to September. While the deficit is expected to peak next year, there are also some positive signs emerging.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the main measure of inflation in Australia, rose 1.6% in the September quarter and 0.7% on an annual basis. This is a sign that the economy is beginning to move again after price falls in the June quarter. The biggest increases were childcare (as temporarily free childcare came to an end) and petrol. Consumer confidence also improved, with the weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan index hitting an 8-month high of 99.7 points in late October. Unemployment rose slightly from 6.8% to 6.9% in September, a little less than anticipated.

In another sign of confidence, the value of new loans for housing rose 12.6% in August. The value of owner-occupier loans was up a record 13.6%, with first time buyers accounting for almost a third. The value of investor loans was up 9.3%. And used car prices rose almost 30% in the year to September, a sign that when we do decide to spend, we’re bargain-hunting.