June 2020 Insights

Winter is here and we are almost to the end of another financial year. And what a year it’s been! With so many Australians impacted by fires, floods, drought and now COVID-19, let’s hope the new financial year sees a return to something like normality.

As May unfolded, hopes grew of economic re-opening. Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe told a Senate Committee on COVID-19 the economic downturn was less severe than feared due to Australia’s better than expected health outcomes and government stimulus and support. However, he stressed: “It’s very important we don’t withdraw fiscal stimulus too early”. Unemployment rose from 5.2% to 6.2% in April, but without JobKeeper support payments it would have been closer to 9.6%. The value of construction work fell 19% in the March quarter, 6.5% over the year, highlighting the need for government stimulus. New business investment in buildings and equipment also fell 6.1% in the year to March, although mining investment bucked the trend, up 4.2% in the March quarter. This was reflected in our record trade surplus of $77.5 billion in the year to April, despite a drop-off in imports and exports in April.

After a wave of panic buying in March, retail trade fell a record 17.9% in April, but consumer confidence is on the mend. The ANZ-Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence index rose 8 weeks in a row to the end of May, up a total of 42% from recent lows to 92.7 points. As the global economy slowly re-opens and demand improves, iron ore prices rose 15% in May while crude oil was up 77%. Australian shares bounced back by around 5% in May, while the US market rose 3%. The Aussie dollar traded higher on our improved economic outlook, closing the month around US66.4c