September 2020 Insights

It’s September and spring is finally here. This is always a wonderful time to get out in the garden or in nature, on foot or on your bike, even if travel restrictions mean we need to stay closer to home this year.

The recent company reporting season for the year or half-year to June 30 provided an insight into the financial impact of COVID-19 – on the economy and for investors. Analysis by CommSec showed only 75% of ASX 200 companies reported a net profit in the year to June 30. Full-year earnings were down 38% on aggregate, while dividends were down 36%. In an extremely difficult trading environment, 53% of companies either cut or didn’t pay a dividend, a move that will affect investors who depend on dividend income from shares.

There were bright spots though. Gold companies profited from rising gold prices, up almost 30% this year due to gold’s status as a ‘safe-haven’ investment. Iron ore miners benefitted from a lift in demand from China and rising iron ore prices, up 46% this year. While homewares and electronics retailers and those with a strong online presence enjoyed increased demand from Australians staying close to home. Retail trade rose 12.2% in the year to July, the strongest annual growth in 19 years. Consumer confidence is also improving, with the weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating up 42% since its March lows to 92.7 points in the last week of August. The Australian dollar is fetching around US73.5c, up almost 5% this year.

Challenges remain, however. Unemployment rose to 7.5% in July, the highest level in 22 years. Business investment fell 11.5% in the year to July and residential building activity fell 12.1% in the year to June – the biggest fall in 19 years. The Reserve Bank forecasts the economy will contract 6% this year before rebounding 5% in 2021.